TG TherapeuticsTGTX

We expect revenue to grow from $0.9B in FY2026 to $2.7B in FY2031 (~24% CAGR), with EPS growing from $1.28 to $5.20 (~32% CAGR). Briumvi is gaining significant market share in the large multiple sclerosis market as a high-efficacy, more convenient infusion option. Manufacturing and clinical trial costs are relatively fixed, allowing more revenue from drug sales to flow directly to the bottom line as the patient base grows. EPS grows faster than revenue because the company is moving past its initial launch costs and benefiting from significant operating leverage. Operating margin expected to reach ~40% by FY2031.

Briumvi expands into additional autoimmune indications like Myasthenia Gravis. Success in secondary indications would double the drug's addressable market and extend its revenue lifecycle.

Operating leverage drives net margins toward 40% as sales scale. As the drug becomes a standard of care, marketing costs should stabilize while revenue continues to climb.

European royalties from Neuraxpharm partnership begin to scale. International sales provide a high-margin revenue stream that requires zero additional capital from TG Therapeutics.

New competitive entries like subcutaneous Ocrevus negate the infusion advantage. If Roche launches an equally fast or more convenient version of their drug, Briumvi loses its primary hook.

Drug pricing reform in the US targets high-cost biologics. MS drugs are expensive and could be prime targets for government-negotiated price caps, hurting margins.

Concentration risk as a single-product company makes any safety signal catastrophic. Any negative long-term safety data would effectively end the company's growth story overnight.

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We use a Forward P/E approach, applying a price-to-earnings multiple to the projected FY2027 earnings. This fits TG Therapeutics because the company has successfully transitioned to GAAP profitability, making earnings the most reliable indicator of long-term shareholder value compared to the revenue-only multiples used for earlier-stage, loss-making biotechs.

Projected FY2027 EPS of $2.55 multiplied by a 30x multiple gives a per-share fair value of $77. This 30x multiple sits at the top end of the profitable biotech peer range (Vertex 28x, Incyte 16x, Biogen 14x)—a premium justified by the company's superior 70% revenue growth rate compared to the 10–15% growth seen in mature peers. We use the FY2027 EPS estimate of $2.55 from the projection engine to reflect the first full year of optimized commercial scaling.

A 5-year Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) cross-check produced a fair value of $99, which is 28% higher than our $77 Forward P/E result. The DCF is more aggressive because it captures the long-term cash flow "tail" of Briumvi’s patent life and high terminal value, whereas the Forward P/E only looks one year ahead. Since the two methods are within 30%, we lean toward the $77 Forward P/E as a more conservative anchor for current valuation while acknowledging the significant upside potential captured in the DCF.

We're assuming Briumvi maintains its strong adoption curve in the U.S. multiple sclerosis market through FY2028. The current 70% year-over-year revenue growth suggests high provider satisfaction and effective commercial execution, which supports our expectation of steady market-share capture from established incumbents like Biogen.

We're assuming the company maintains its high gross margins of approximately 83%. As a specialty biologic, the manufacturing costs are relatively fixed; this allows incremental revenue growth to drop directly to the bottom line as marketing and sales expenses scale more slowly than total volume.

We're assuming no material dilution from equity raises is required to fund operations through FY2027. With $440M in cash and consistent GAAP profitability over the last four quarters, the company should be able to fund its commercial expansion using internal cash flow and existing reserves.

The biggest risk is the high concentration of revenue in a single product, Briumvi, which leaves the company vulnerable to any safety signals or competitive pricing shifts. Such an event could compress the forward multiple from 30x to 12x, slashing roughly $45 off the per-share fair value. Watch the "Adverse Events" section of quarterly filings and product revenue growth for early signs of market share erosion.